Implied Probability Sports Calculator
See the real chance hidden in the odds for one or more picks.
How to Use This Calculator
- Pick your odds format (Decimal, Fractional, or American)
- Put in odds for at least two outcomes (say Team A and Team B)
- Add extra outcomes when you need them (like a draw in soccer)
- Check the implied probability for each outcome, the total probability, and the bookmaker margin
When the total implied probability climbs above 100%, that’s the bookmaker’s margin showing.
Formula
Implied Probability from Decimal Odds: Probability = (1 / Decimal Odds) x 100%
Bookmaker Margin: Margin = Total Implied Probability - 100%
No-Vig (Fair) Probability: Fair Probability = Implied Probability / Total Implied Probability
Frequently Asked Questions
What does implied probability mean?
Implied probability is how likely an outcome is based on its odds. It has the bookmaker’s margin baked in, which is why the totals always add up to more than 100%.
What is the bookmaker margin?
The bookmaker margin (also called vig or juice) is the gap between the combined implied probabilities and 100%. That gap is the profit the bookmaker has built in.
How can I spot value bets?
If you reckon the real chance of an outcome is better than the implied probability the odds suggest, then that bet carries positive expected value.